HGS RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT – Fully-Integrated Groundwater-Surface Water Forecasting in Two Contrasting Hydrostratigraphic Settings within Southern Ontario
bmcneill last edited by bmcneill
AUTHORS: S.K. Frey (1), O. Khader, H. Zhang (2), G. Stonebridge, D. Steinmoeller, A.R. Erler, A. Taylor, S.J. Berg, E.A. Sudicky
(1) Aquanty, 564 Weber St N. Waterloo, ON, N2L 5C6; email@example.com
(2) Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks, 125 Resources Rd, Toronto, ON
We are happy to see the 2021 Southern Ontario Groundwater Geoscience Forum content is now available online (see below). Aquanty’s Steve Frey presented our latest work associated with the project for a fully integrated groundwater–surface-water model for southern Ontario.
In this presentation we highlight our efforts to couple two watershed scale HydroGeoSphere models with the latest weather forecasts. The results allow us to forecast future groundwater levels and surface water flow rates over the short to medium term (i.e daily to monthly).
Over the course of the 2014 – 2019 Southern Ontario Groundwater Project, a fully-integrated groundwater – surface water model was developed and tested. This regional scale model extends across the Phanerozoic terrain of southern Ontario and localized areas of exposed Precambrian shield, such that the model boundary is coincident with watershed boundaries. The spatially heterogeneous subsurface component of the regional model includes three soil layers, five Quaternary layers, and either eleven or seven bedrock layers for the respective low (coarsely discretized) and high (finely discretized) resolution model versions. Since 2019, work with the regional model has been ongoing, including the development of a derivative set of watershed scale models that utilize the same hydrostratigraphy as the regional model, but are constructed with much higher levels of spatial resolution. The watershed scale models are incorporated into a hydrologic forecasting system that until recently had only been evaluated for its ability to predict short-term surface water flows. However, current efforts are focused on further developing and evaluating the ability of the forecasting system to predict future groundwater conditions, including recharge, discharge, and water table position.
In this presentation, we will discuss the progress that is being made towards the goal of using the platform to provide short term (i.e. 1 to 7 day) and sub-seasonal (i.e. monthly) groundwater forecasts. The watershed regions of particular interest in this work are those that encompass the Quinte and Long Point Region Conservation Authority management areas. While both of these areas are highly susceptible to drought impacts on their groundwater resources, they provide contrasting hydrostratigraphy and hydrologic behavior, which in turn makes them ideally suited for forecast model evaluation and comparison.
In addition to the model focused discussion, we will also show recent developments with the web portal that is designed to disseminate the groundwater (and surface water) forecast information to a broad base of groundwater and surface water stakeholders.